Two Tossup Senate Races and a Tight Presidential Race in Georgia

Georgia may have long been a solid Republican state, but like many others, is a hotly contested swing state this year. The Peach State has two high-stakes U.S. Senate elections and a very tight presidential race, with all candidates virtually neck-and-neck. In fact, based on FiveThirtyEight’s U.S. Senate forecast, it is the closest GOP-leaning state in terms of margins.

Georgia’s main population center and capital is Atlanta (a beta+ city), a liberal bastion in an otherwise red state. The counties of Fulton, Clayton, and DeKalb, which make up Atlanta, are solidly blue counties. Other smaller cities, like Savannah, Columbus, and Augusta, are blue, too. Most of the areas outside these cities are Republican strongholds.

The state has consistently voted for the Republican presidential nominee since 1996. However, in 2016, Georgia was one of three GOP states (the others being Arizona and Texas) that voted for Donald Trump by a lesser margin than Mitt Romney in 2012. The state moved about four points to the left in 2016 in a year that Republicans won strong.

This is quite evident of rapid population growth in the state, especially in the Atlanta suburbs, which is rapidly getting bluer and bluer.

The polls also look good for Biden in this right-leaning state. New polls from Landmark Communications (B rated pollster), Civiqs (B/C rated), and Quinnipiac University (B+ rated) have shown Biden leading by two or three percent. A Siena College/New York Times poll (A+ rated) is showing the race even, as is Data for Progress (B- rated). An Economist/YouGov (B rated) poll shows Trump up, but only by one percent. There have also been a number of low-quality SurveyMonkey (D- rated) polls with mixed results. The polling average on FiveThirtyEight is showing Biden up by 1.0 percent, which is his first lead in quite a while. Other polling aggregates, like RealClearPolitics and 270towin, show Biden up as well.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model is giving Trump a 58 percent chance of winning Georgia, which is terrible news for the president, considering Georgia is typically a right-leaning state. Besides Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Politico rating the race as lean Republican, all other pundit forecasters, like The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, The Economist, RealClearPolitics, Niskanen Center, CNN, 270towin, and FiveThirtyEight rate the race as a tossup. The Newshacker forecast, which doesn’t use tossups, currently rates the race as tilt Republican, indicating Trump has a very slight edge.

Notably, though, as seen in FiveThirtyEight’s “snake map” above, Georgia is by no means crucial to a Biden victory, as any state past Pennsylvania (the expected tipping point) would be additions to Biden’s victory. The state is absolutely essential for a Trump victory.

Georgia is the only state this election cycle that has both of its U.S. Senate seats being up for election. Let’s first talk about the normal Senate election, in which Democrats have a better chance at winning than the special election.

In the normal Senate election, incumbent Republican David Perdue is facing off Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. Perdue’s constant praise for Donald Trump may be hurting him in this state because many new polls are showing leads for Ossoff, which is quite unexpected, as this seat is expected to be kept by Perdue. This is expected to be a close Senate race as well.

The FiveThirtyEight Deluxe forecast gives Perdue a 73 percent chance of winning the seat, which falls to 68 percent in the Lite forecast, where only polling data is considered. Forecasters generally rate the race as lean or tilt Republican or a tossup. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a tossup. If Ossoff wins this seat, based on the Newshacker Senate forecast, the Democrats would control 52 seats, if every other Senate race voted according to the forecast.

After Johnny Isakson resigned from Georgia’s other Senate seat in 2019, Kelly Loeffler, a Republican, was appointed to this seat to serve until a special election is held this November. In this special election, there is no primary contest. Instead, all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party, and if no candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote (highly likely), the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff election to be held on January 5, 2021.

There are two Republicans, the incumbent Loeffler, as well as a Republican challenger Doug Collins on the ballot. There are also two main Democrats on the ballot, Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. Warnock is the favored Democrat.

Previously, Democrats were worried about not even making it to the runoff, because there were two Democrats running, which may result in a spoiler. However, after a number of endorsements, such as from Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, and a strong push to coalesce behind Warnock, Warnock’s polling numbers shot up, putting him way past Loeffler and Collins. Lieberman is now facing intense pressure to drop out of the race, which he has refused. However, polling data indicates a complete collapse in Lieberman’s support.

This will probably allow Warnock to advance to the runoff. Polling data is indicating Lieberman’s support completely collapsing, with people moving in favor of Warnock.

The latest polling data has Warnock way ahead of both Loeffler and Collins, and if this lead holds, Warnock will be able to make it to the runoff.

The recent upshot in polling numbers for Warnock has made the FiveThirtyEight Deluxe forecast move drastically in favor of Warnock. In early September, before a great push to coalesce behind Warnock occurred, the forecast gave a Republican (either Loeffler or Collins) an 83 percent chance of keeping the seat. This has now dropped by almost 10 percent, down to a 76 percent chance of Loeffler winning, greatly increasing Warnock’s chances. The Lite forecast gives Loeffler an even lower 61 percent chance of winning.

Many forecasters have now moved the race into lean or tilt characterizations when it was previously classified as likely Republican. This change will be reflected in the next installment of the Newshacker Senate Forecast, which will be released sometime in the next week.

This special election is now looking way better for Democrats than it ever was. If the Democrats manage to win both of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats, which are both well within striking distance for the Democrats, that would mark a rapid shift of a state moving from two Republican senators to two Democratic senators, and would also hugely solidify a Democratic Senate majority.

Though still a Republican state at heart, all of Georgia’s elections are well within striking distance for the Democrats. High minority turnout will be key to a Democratic victory in Georgia.

More state analyses are coming soon, as I aim to cover every swing state before the election. I have already covered Arizona, Montana, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina in this series. Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, Nebraska’s Second District, and more are all planned for this series. New presidential and Senate forecasts are also coming soon.

A post discussing the Vice Presidential debates will be out tomorrow. Next week, I will also have a post discussing the new FiveThirtyEight U.S. House forecast model as well, so stay tuned for that.

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If you live in the state of Georgia, make sure to go and vote, as your vote really does make a difference. Please use your vote wisely.

_{Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.}