State Analysis Archives

Arizona Finally Called For Biden By Most Media

On November 12, most media organizations, including CNN, NBC News, ABC News, The New York Times, and CBS News called Arizona for Joe Biden. The call comes days after the Associated Press and Fox News called the state, and well over nine days after Election Day. This marks the first time since 1996 a Democratic presidential candidate carried the traditional Republican stronghold, and only the second time since Harry S. Truman won the state in 1948. This leftward shift is evident of demographic change in the state and ushers in a new era of politics for Arizona.

Key Races By State and Expected Vote Report Times

Election Day is now officially here. Over 99 million people have voted already, according to data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project. In actuality, “Election Day” really is vote-tabulation day, since so many people have chosen to vote early this year. In today’s post, we are going to take a look at each state, from Alabama all the way to Wyoming, and discussing the key races briefly.

Wisconsin: The State That Polls Got ‘Wrong’ In 2016

Like Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Rust Belt state of Wisconsin completely broke everyone’s expectations when it voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 0.77 percent, or 22,748 votes, in 2016. In fact, the Badger State was the only state that ended up having a vote result outside of the margin of error of polling data. Clinton led by 6.5 percent on Election Day here, based on Real Clear Politics’ polling average. Though many are worried about another upset here again, as we’ll see, this year’s election is nothing like 2016’s.

Is Michigan Is Safer For Biden Than South Dakota Is For Trump?

One of the three Rust Belt swing states (the others being Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Michigan shocked the nation when it voted for Trump in 2016 by a margin of just 0.23 percent. This prompted many to ask whether the so-called “Blue Wall” will ever exist again. However, it seems like that the Great Lakes State, along with its neighbors, have been able to rebuild the lucrative “Blue Wall” again.

Three Competitive Senate Races: Alabama, Alaska, and Maine

Among the most competitive U.S. Senate races this year we have Alabama, Alaska, and Maine. That may seem strange, given that these states are very solid on the presidential level. Two in three of these states have Republican incumbents: Dan Sullivan from Alaska and Susan Collins from Maine, while Alabama, a deep-red Bible Belt state, has an incumbent Democrat, Doug Jones, and all of them are super competitive. Let’s find out why in this post.

Why These States Are No Longer Competitive For the GOP

There are a number of states around the country that were once considered swing states but have staunchly moved in favor of Democrats in recent years. These include the past swing states of (alphabetically) Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. In this post, we are going to be taking a look at why these states are no longer swing states.

Nebraska and Maine’s 2nd District Explained

If you’ve looked at any electoral map prediction, you may have noticed that Maine and Nebraska are slightly different in the way that they assign electoral votes to presidential candidates. Rather than assigning all of that state’s electors to the overall statewide winner, the two states assign two votes for the at-large winner and one each for each of their congressional districts (three in Neb. and two in Maine). Coincidentally, in both of these states, the second district is competitive. Today, we’re going to take a closer look at these districts.

How Did Kansas’s US Senate Race Get So Competitive?

Among the numerous surprising U.S. Senate races that have gotten very competitive this year, like South Carolina and Montana, Kansas is one such race. The Sunflower State is one of the most socially conservative and Republican-leaning states in the country. In this open Senate race, Democratic candidate Barbara Bollier has managed to run up the numbers against Republican candidate Roger Marshall. In this post, we are going to take a look at how this race got so competitive.

How Pennsylvania Could Decide the Election

Pennsylvania has been a key swing state for much of modern history. Though the Keystone State has trended bluer in recent elections, leading to the formation of the so-called “blue wall” consisting of the Rust Belt states of Penn., Mich., and Wis., as well as other Northeastern states. However, Donald Trump managed to break through this blue wall, winning the state by a mere 44,000 votes (a 0.7 percent margin) in 2016. This has pushed the state back again into the swing state column, and both campaigns are heavily targeting the state this year.

How South Carolina’s US Senate Race Got So Competitive

South Carolina is traditionally a ruby-red, solid Republican state. However, the incumbent Republican U.S. senator, Lindsey Graham, is facing the fight of his life. Polls have shown the race at a virtual statistical tie. How did the Senate race in the Palmetto State get so tight, when he won reelection in 2014 by a safe margin? And will Graham actually lose?

Will Texas Flip Blue This November? (October Update)

I last covered the topic of Texas flipping blue back in August. Since then, a great deal has changed in the national landscape. So, today, we will be looking at whether the Lone Star State will flip blue in either the Presidential or Senate levels. Texas is a key state to watch as it is the second-largest Electoral College prize at 38 electoral votes, behind only California with 55.

Two Tossup Senate Races and a Tight Presidential Race in Georgia

Georgia may have long been a solid Republican state, but like many others, is a hotly contested swing state this year. The Peach State has two high-stakes U.S. Senate elections and a very tight presidential race, with all candidates virtually neck-and-neck. In fact, based on FiveThirtyEight’s U.S. Senate forecast, it is the closest GOP-leaning state in terms of margins.

Democrats Maintain a Modest But Consistent Lead in NC

North Carolina is one of the most hotly contested swing states this election season, with a very competitive presidential race, a moderately competitive Senate race, and a less-competitive governor race, all of which are projected to go to the Democrats. The Tar Heel State is a former Confederate state and leans slightly Republican in recent years, but owing to demographic shifts, may possibly be moving back in the Democrats’ favor once again. The state is quite a large electoral prize, possessing 15 electoral votes.

The Longest-Lasting Bellwether State of Ohio: Will It Last?

The Buckeye State has been the longest political bellwether on the presidential level, having voted with the eventual president every year perfectly since 1964. (In fact, it has only not done so four times since 1860: in 1884, 1892, 1944, and 1960.) In fact, no Republican has ever won an election without having carried Ohio. As a result of this and a similar split in party registration, Ohio is a key battleground state in the Rust Belt, heavily targeted by presidential campaigns.

Iowa: Presidential, Senate, and House Tossup

Though Iowa, the Hawkeye State, is seen as getting progressively more Republican due to the state voting for Donald Trump by a 10-point margin in 2016, it is still a hotly contested swing state and definitely on both parties’ radar. There are close presidential, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House races in the state, and we also must not forget the fact that Iowa has a long history of big swings between presidential candidates.

The Key Battleground State of Florida

Florida has always been a key battleground state in virtually every election cycle in modern history. The Sunshine State has a slight Republican tilt, but its 29 electoral votes, the third-biggest electoral prize, is always sought after by candidates on both sides. This year, none of its Senate seats are up for reelection.

The Races In Montana Are Tightening Up

In most people’s eyes, Montana is a solidly Republican state, having voted for the Republican president every election since 1992 (and prior to that, 1964). But just dig slightly deeper, and you will find that Montana is not actually that solid for the Republicans at all.

The Races In Arizona Are Moving In Democrats’ Favor

Arizona, once a ruby-red state that has voted the Republican nominee for president since 1996 (and before that, 1948!) is no longer. It isn’t even just a swing state, like Texas or North Carolina. Rather, it is now a state that is favored for the Democrats to win. Let’s take a look at some of the data coming out from Arizona.