Final 2020 Pre-Election Electoral College Prediction

This is it: tomorrow is the big day. In just one day, we will finally see the big showdown between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. This is the last Newshacker Blog Electoral College prediction, and, spoiler alert: Joe Biden continues to be the expected winner in this projection. Already, 94 million people have voted already based on data from the U.S. Elections Project, and Joe Biden has an approximately 90 percent chance of victory on FiveThirtyEight.

We’ve seen a number of major issues cloud this year’s presidential campaign, including the COVID-19 pandemic (President Trump even tested positive for COVID-19), a tax scandal related to the President, a Supreme Court opening, the re-ignition of the Black Lives Matter protest movement, all while the nation is seeing record early voter turnout and the GOP is trying to suppress voting and question election integrity for fear of losing.

Yet, despite this, Joe Biden has consistently maintained a lead in the polls throughout the entire campaign season. FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, a highly revered poll aggregator, has never shown Donald Trump lead. And currently, Donald Trump continues to be 8.6 points behind in the nationwide average.

Also, on FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Biden retains a 90 percent chance of victory in the Electoral College. This is up from approximately 70 percent in September.

Even if you believe Real Clear Politics (RCP) to be a better poll aggregator, it still has never shown Trump leading since last October! Biden currently leads by 7.8 percent on this average.

This year, a number of issues are considered very important to voters, especially the economy, health care, COVID-19, race relations, climate change, and more. Some issues are clearly more partisan than others, as summarized by the following data from the Pew Research Center released in early October.

Personally, I believe that it is crazy how political the COVID-19 outbreak has become, and is a bleak picture of the current administration. Only 24 percent of Republican voters, compared to 82 percent of Democratic voters, believe that a pandemic that has killed 230,000 Americans a “very important” issue, and the amount of Republicans that care about health care is also very staggering. Believe all you may want, but the COVID-19 pandemic is very real, very serious, and absolutely should not be a partisan issue. The Republicans’ disbelief of the pandemic is costing thousands of American lives.

Moving on, let’s jump into the actual prediction. If you don’t know how the president is elected, though, be sure to check out our guide thoroughly first. I use YAPMS.com for the following electoral maps.

In case you’re not familiar with margin colors used in these maps, the order is as follows (the darker the color, the safer a state is for a candidate):

• If the winning margin is expected to be greater than or equal to 15 percent, the state is “safe”;
• If the winning margin is expected to be between five and 15 percent, the state is “likely”;
• If the winning margin is expected to be between one and five percent, the state is “lean”; and
• If the winning margin is expected to be within one percent, the state is “tilt.”

Note that whenever a state’s name is hyperlinked, it means that there is a more in-depth analysis of the state. Percentage chances used below for the likelihood each candidate has of winning a state is based on FiveThirtyEight’s model.

We’ll start by coloring in the safe states, which are practically guaranteed to vote a certain way.

What is surprising is the lack of safe states for the president. Traditionally solid Republican strongholds like Kansas and Mississippi have seen the president lose so much support that the races in these states are no longer expected to go to him by 15 points. Only the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska at-large and third district, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming are expected to vote for Donald Trump by a margin of above 15 percent.

In contrast, Joe Biden is doing very well in the Democratic strongholds. He has massively shored up support in these states and is receiving a lot of campaign donations from states like California. Joe Biden is expected to carry the states of California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine’s first district, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont by margins of over 15 percent, already giving him a clear lead over the president.

New Mexico may be a surprising addition, but polling data indicates a strong lead for Joe Biden and with pundit forecasters like The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, The Economist, and FiveThirtyEight rating the race as safe, it is likely that this race is safe for Joe Biden. Biden has a 97 percent chance of winning; the state is practically a lost cause for the GOP on the statewide level.

The rest of these states don’t require too much discussion. There isn’t really any doubt over who will carry states such as Wyoming or California—they vote the same way every single year.

I like to split the likely states into two groups: one that is realistically competitive, and one that is considered a lock for a particular party, but the winning margin is expected to be less than 15 percent. This gives us a better idea of which states are actually competitive. Let’s start with the latter group.

On the Republican side, we have Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska’s first district, and Utah. These states are practically guaranteed to go to Trump but by margins of less than 15 percent. Some will almost be safe: Mississippi will probably vote for Trump by 13 to 14 percent. Interestingly, Kansas actually has a super competitive U.S. Senate race, which is explained on its analysis page.

With the classification of these states, it does give Trump a boost, but he is still far behind Biden.

Biden is expected to easily win Colorado, Maine at-large, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. These are all states that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and considering 2020 is expected to be a strong Democratic year, there is little hope in Trump flipping any of these states. Though polling may be somewhat close in Nevada, polling routinely overestimates Republicans there, so take polls from Nevada with a grain of salt. Biden leads in polling by 11.9, 13.5, 5.0, 11.0, and 11.2 percent respectively, and his chances to win in each of these states are 96, 90, 87, 89, and 99 percent respectively.

Let’s discuss the rest of the likely states now.

For Trump, this includes Montana—a new addition—as well as South Carolina. Both of these states are seeing super competitive U.S. Senate races, which is also likely helping Joe Biden. Still, Trump retains an 85 percent chance of winning Montana and a 92 percent chance of winning South Carolina. A Biden victory in any one of these states would probably be one of the biggest upsets of this election. However, it is of note that even in 2016, S.C. was not safe for Trump. He only won it by 14 percent.

The only other likely state for Donald Trump is Alaska. This is a state that has a competitive Senate and at-large House race, and with Alaska generally seeing Trump disfavorably, there is the off-chance that he could lose here, though that would still be quite unlikely as he leads by 7.5 percent on the polling average and has an 85 percent chance of winning here. The fact that Alaska is even competitive really tells you all you need to know about this election.

For Joe Biden, he will probably carry the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin (a new addition) by a likely margin. Though Minnesota was the only one that voted for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden has massively shored up support in these states. He leads by 8.2 percent in Michigan, 9.2 percent in Minnesota, and by 7.9 percent in Wisconsin, with a 96, 95, and 93 percent chance of carrying each state respectively. Despite Trump’s efforts to flip these states (he only won Mich. and Wis. by less than one percent in 2016), they seem to have solidified for Joe Biden.

I have moved Wisconsin over from lean to likely Democratic because of how good polling has looked for him in this state recently. In fact, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll (A+ rated pollster) has shown Biden leading by 17 percent in the state. Though it is probably an outlier, the fact that it looks so good for Biden is really telling. (Maybe, though with the new Siena College/New York Times poll showing Biden up by 11, it isn’t that much of an outlier after all).

We’ll now get into the more competitive lean states, of which there are quite a few.

Spoiler alert: Biden has already won the election by far with just these classifications. In fact, he only needs to win Pennsylvania, worth a whopping 20 votes, to secure a victory. Pennsylvania is probably the most competitive Rust Belt state this cycle, and it is the most important: it has an over 20 percent chance of being the tipping point state, or the state which gives a candidate the victory (270 votes). Though it usually votes together with Mich. and Wis., the state seems much less solid for Biden, who only has a 5.1 percent lead in the state. Still, Biden remains the clear favorite to win, with an 86 percent chance of carrying it. All A-rated (or higher) pollsters are showing Biden with a fairly solid lead.

The next state is Arizona, a state that has moved greatly in the Democrats’ favor in the last couple of years, with the Democrats even scoring major victories in the 2018 midterms. As a result of the state’s demographic shift, it is expected to vote Democratic for the first time in over two decades. Biden has maintained a modest, but consistent lead of 3.1 percent, and a 70 percent chance to win the state. The only two polls that show Trump leading are Republican pollsters that generally show good results for the GOP. With the state expecting to gain another U.S. House seat following the 2020 Census, this state will only get more important.

Florida is a state that always seems to swing on a knife’s edge every election, and is one of the most hotly contested swing states, in part because it is one of the largest swing states with 15 votes. Both campaigns have spent considerable time and money on ads in this state. It seems, though, with the Trump administration’s mishandling of COVID-19, it has pushed many elderly voters away from him, allowing Biden to take a narrow 2.2-point lead in the polls and a 67 percent chance of winning.

Nebraska’s Second District remains in the lean column Joe Biden. This district covers Downtown Omaha and is one that seems to have moved in Biden’s favor a great deal this season. Though there have only been two nonpartisan polls—one from Emerson College and one from Siena College/The New York Times—both have shown good results for Biden. Biden leads by 4.5 percent and has a 74 percent chance of carrying the district. Even though it only has one electoral vote, it could be important in a close election.

North Carolina has moved from tilt to lean Democrat. This is in part due to recent polling strengthening for Joe Biden, with him leading in a few highly rated polls. These polls have given us a pretty good idea of how the state will vote, and FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a higher chance of carrying N.C. than Fla., which is pretty interesting. He leads by 1.9 percent on the polling average and has a 64 percent chance of winning.

There are no lean Republican states for Trump, so let’s move into the final category of states: the tilt states, which really do have the potential of flipping either way, as the expected winning margin is less than one percent.

Maine’s Second District is more rural than the first district, and it actually voted for Trump by almost 10 percent in 2016, a huge shift from 2012. This year, though, it seems Biden has been able to regain some of Hillary Clinton’s lost support, as he still leads by 3.2 percent in the district’s polling average, with a 58 percent chance of winning (a new high for him). This likely comes as a result of SurveyUSA’s new poll (A rated poll) showing Biden leading by two percent in the district.

Georgia has moved from tilt Republican to tilt Democratic. It is a decision that took me a long time to make, but ultimately, I do believe that Joe Biden will be able to edge out an extremely narrow victory here, given that he has spent heavily in the state and campaigned there a few times. The largest factor influencing my decision to move this state comes from a large number of good polls for Biden from this state as well as FiveThirtyEight predicting a Biden victory here. Joe Biden now leads by 1.0 percent in the polling average (one of his largest leads ever) and has led since October 1, leading me to believe that this wasn’t just a fluke—it was actually able to be sustained for over one month just before the election. Biden also has a 55 percent chance of carrying the state, his largest chance as yet. Still, it could probably go either way on election day. Turnout will be everything here. So far, 93 percent of the total vote share in 2016 have been cast in this state. Also, previous polls, like one from Siena College/New York Times (A+ rated), have also shown the race at a tie.

Moving on from the Democratic states, we have Texas, which sees itself being moved back into the tilt column (from the lean column) again. This change largely comes as a result of the voting rate in Texas hitting a historical high (as of writing, the voting rate this year as a percentage of total 2016 votes is 107 percent), which generally is a good sign for the Democrats. It is by far the largest swing state, with 38 electoral votes, and its prominence as a swing state surged recently as Biden and Kamala Harris decided to campaign in the state and divert resources into it. Though Biden has led in a handful of polls, it seems Trump still has a lead—he is up 1.1 percent on the polling average and has a 64 percent chance of victory. Even so, it is definitely a very close race, and we could definitely see the margin be less than one percent. The Cook Political Report has actually rated this race as a tossup, a sign of how competitive Texas has become.

Iowa continues to remain in the tilt Republican column. A new Selzer & Co. (A+ rated pollster) poll has shown Trump up seven percent on this state. Though it is highly likely it is an outlier (it single-handedly shifted the polling average from Biden +0.4 to Trump +1.6.). Again, it is not a good idea to put too much faith into one pollster, no matter how good they are, because outlier polls do exist, and good pollsters always release them anyway (it’s a good sign that there isn’t any poll-herding like there was four years ago). Even though this one poll moved Trump’s chances from a 50-50 chance up to a 63 percent chance, this race is still likely remaining super competitive and narrow.

I have decided to move Ohio back into the tilt Republican column due to good polls for Trump here. Unfortunately, it seems like Ohio’s bellwether status may be coming to an end, due to demographic shifts making the state trend redder and redder. It has flipped back and forth on FiveThirtyEight between Trump and Biden, but it seems to have settled into the Trump column. That is not to say that Biden can’t win, though. The polling average is showing Trump up by just 0.2 percent, and Trump has just a 51 percent chance of winning—a pure tossup. Though it will be disappointing to see Ohio lose its bellwether status, it is clear that Ohio’s days as a bellwether are increasingly numbered.

That ends our final Electoral College prediction for the 2020 election, with Biden sitting at 351 electoral votes and Trump at 187. If these numbers hold true, it will still be less than Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, but if Ohio, Iowa, and Texas all flip (they are well within the margin of error), we could be seeing the largest Democratic landslide since Lyndon B. Johnson’s victory in 1964.

Summary of changes between October 14 and November 1:

• Wisconsin moves from lean to likely Democratic.
• North Carolina moves from tilt to lean Democratic.
• Georgia moves from tilt Republican to lean Democratic.
• Texas moves from lean to tilt Republican.
• Ohio moves from tilt Democratic to tilt Republican.

Here is the electoral map, but with tossups. There are a total of 123 tossup electoral votes, coming from Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine’s Second District, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

The map below shows all the states, in green, to keep a close eye on. Basically, all of the state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 are considered virtually locks for Joe Biden, while among states that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, a good number of them are competitive and should be watched closely.

Make sure to also check out Newshacker Blog‘s final gubernatorial prediction and U.S. Senate prediction.

See how the race for the White House has progressed since June by checking out all prior election predictions:

• June 18
• June 26
• July 15
• July 27
• August 17
• September 7
• September 22
• October 14

If you haven’t already voted, tomorrow is the last day you can do so. Make sure to go vote! Learn more here.

Also check out the 2020 election coverage page for more posts on the election.