Will Texas Flip Blue This November? (October Update)

I last covered the topic of Texas flipping blue back in August. Since then, a great deal has changed in the national landscape. So, today, we will be looking at whether the Lone Star State will flip blue in either the Presidential or Senate levels. Texas is a key state to watch as it is the second-largest Electoral College prize at 38 electoral votes, behind only California with 55.

Most Texans live in what is known as the “Texas Triangle,” which consists of the cities of Houston (the fourth largest in the country), San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, and Fort Worth. The area is significantly more liberal than the rest of the state, with the possible exception of El Paso in the west, which has a large Latino population due to its proximity to Mexico. Whether or not Texas flips blue will strongly depend on turnout in these cities. (Obviously, the GOP knows this, and they have been trying to suppress voting.)

Those who did not follow this election closely will find it strange that Texas is now being considered a swing state. After all, it has been a GOP stronghold for the last 40 some-odd years, having last voted for a Democrat in 1976. However, Texas is becoming more and more liberal every year due to an increasing minority population and domestic immigration to the Sun Belt, fueling population growth.

In fact, in 2016, it was just one of three states (the others being Arizona and Georgia) that voted to the left of 2012 margins. In 2012, the state voted for Mitt Romney by a margin of 16 percent. In 2016, that dropped significantly down to nine percent. This is mainly due to population growth as mentioned above. It is of note, though, that the polling average four years ago was almost 14 percent. The polls overestimated Republicans by five percent. Also, in 2016, Trump had a 95 percent chance of winning Texas. That has dropped significantly, as we will see below.

This election cycle, however, spells out bad news for the Trump campaign. What was a double-digit lead just four years ago has dwindled down to a single-digit lead within the margin of error. On FiveThirtyEight, Trump is leading by just 1.8 percent. Recent polls have shown the state very tight. Every single poll has Trump leading by five percent or less. In general, the polling data have shown both candidates neck-and-neck. Some polls are good for Trump, while others are better for Biden. Regardless, most of these polls fall well within the margin of error.

On the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Trump has only a 69 percent chance of keeping Texas. That is absolutely bad news for Trump, considering if he lost Texas, it would pretty much be the nail in the coffin for the Trump campaign.

Other pundit forecasters, like The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Economist, Politico, Inside Elections, FiveThirtyEight, CNN, 270towin, and more have the race at lean Republican (or even tilt). NBC News, Niskanen Center, and RealClearPolitics even have the race as a tossup. The Newshacker Projection rates this race as tilt Republican. This contrasts greatly to 2016 when the race was even rated as “safe Republican” by some forecasters (like Cook).

Although Texas still remains the as the reddest swing state, it is definitely on the radar for the Democrats this year.

Another reason in favor of Texas flipping, besides population growth, may also be due to the state’s bad handling of COVID-19 by Republican officials. The state still has not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (the state is even suing to gut the ACA), resulting in tens of thousands of Texans not having adequate health care. (By contrast, even staunchly conservative Oklahoma recently voted to expand Medicaid.)

Let’s now shift our focus to the Senate election, which looks better for the Republicans than it does on the presidential level. This is largely due to the Democrats choosing to field M.J. Hegar to face off against incumbent Republican John Cornyn. Though Hegar is not a bad candidate, choosing Beto O’Rourke would have been much better as O’Rourke has much more name recognition in the state and almost won against Ted Cruz in 2018. Hegar is still relatively unknown in the state.

This has resulted in Cornyn being the favorite to win the state, with FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast giving Cornyn an 88 percent chance of winning. This is likely due to Senate polls showing Cornyn having consistent single-digit leads in the state.

Though the state is arguably still within striking distance for Hegar, and with her running a campaign very focused on health care, an issue that successfully brought Democrats major wins in the 2018 midterms, a lot would have to go right in order for her to steal this seat from three-term incumbent John Cornyn.

On September 30, Hegar announced that she raised over $13.5 million last quarter, compared to just $1.7 million in the second quarter. This large fundraising haul may help her, but is still far behind from the $38.1 million Beto O’Rourke managed to raise in 2018.

All in all, though the Senate may feel like a lost cause for the Democrats, the presidential race is well within striking distance, as long as turnout is high.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott recently went on a voter suppression chase by only allowing one mail-in ballot dropbox per county, which means that large counties like Harris County (Downtown Houston), which previously had 12 drop boxes and a population greater than 24 states, will now only have one. A federal judge has blocked these measures on Saturday, but an appeals court repealed the block, so we will need to see how it goes.

Other methods the GOP has used to suppress voting in Texas include only allowing those above 65 to vote-by-mail without a valid excuse (COVID-19 is not accepted as an excuse in the state), not allowing student IDs to be used as identity verification (but allowing gun licenses), no online voter suppression, and closing polling places in counties with large minority population growth.

Though it may still be premature for Texas to flip this year, the state is destined to flip within the next half-decade or so. These voter suppression efforts will only work to delay the great Texas flip, which is almost certainly inevitable.

If you live in Texas, your vote counts now, more than ever. If you have already registered to vote, make sure to vote. Early in-person voting begins TODAY and ends October 30. This is especially true if you live in the 7th (Western Greater Houston), 21st (Cities between San Antonio and Austin; Fredericksburg), 22nd (South Houston Suburbs: Sugar Land, Richmond, Webster), 23rd (Southwestern Texas from San Antonio to El Paso), and 24th (Suburbs between Dallas and Fort Worth) congressional districts, which have key U.S. House races.

Anyhow, the fact that a Democrat had only a five percent chance of winning here four years ago now has a 30 percent chance of winning is pretty insane. Just eight years ago, the state voted in a Republican by practically a safe margin!

More state analyses will be coming soon, as I plan to cover Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, South Carolina, and more. I have already covered Arizona, Montana, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia in this series. Make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss any new posts.

UPDATE 10/13/20 9:45 a.m. ET: Massive long lines are seen across Texas as polls open, in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and more. People are reporting the longest lines seen in decades at polling stations, 1.5 hours before polls open. Stay tuned in the final run-up to Election Day as we see how Texas votes!