October 2020 - Newshacker

Final 2020 Pre-Election Gubernatorial Race Predictions

Welcome to the final installment of Newshacker Blog‘s governorship race prediction of the 2020 election cycle. Though not much has changed since the last governorship prediction in early September, I do want to make one last recap of where the governor races around the nation stand prior to Election Day on Nov. 3.

Wisconsin: The State That Polls Got ‘Wrong’ In 2016

Like Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Rust Belt state of Wisconsin completely broke everyone’s expectations when it voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 0.77 percent, or 22,748 votes, in 2016. In fact, the Badger State was the only state that ended up having a vote result outside of the margin of error of polling data. Clinton led by 6.5 percent on Election Day here, based on Real Clear Politics’ polling average. Though many are worried about another upset here again, as we’ll see, this year’s election is nothing like 2016’s.

Is Michigan Is Safer For Biden Than South Dakota Is For Trump?

One of the three Rust Belt swing states (the others being Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Michigan shocked the nation when it voted for Trump in 2016 by a margin of just 0.23 percent. This prompted many to ask whether the so-called “Blue Wall” will ever exist again. However, it seems like that the Great Lakes State, along with its neighbors, have been able to rebuild the lucrative “Blue Wall” again.

Three Competitive Senate Races: Alabama, Alaska, and Maine

Among the most competitive U.S. Senate races this year we have Alabama, Alaska, and Maine. That may seem strange, given that these states are very solid on the presidential level. Two in three of these states have Republican incumbents: Dan Sullivan from Alaska and Susan Collins from Maine, while Alabama, a deep-red Bible Belt state, has an incumbent Democrat, Doug Jones, and all of them are super competitive. Let’s find out why in this post.

Why These States Are No Longer Competitive For the GOP

There are a number of states around the country that were once considered swing states but have staunchly moved in favor of Democrats in recent years. These include the past swing states of (alphabetically) Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. In this post, we are going to be taking a look at why these states are no longer swing states.

Nebraska and Maine’s 2nd District Explained

If you’ve looked at any electoral map prediction, you may have noticed that Maine and Nebraska are slightly different in the way that they assign electoral votes to presidential candidates. Rather than assigning all of that state’s electors to the overall statewide winner, the two states assign two votes for the at-large winner and one each for each of their congressional districts (three in Neb. and two in Maine). Coincidentally, in both of these states, the second district is competitive. Today, we’re going to take a closer look at these districts.

Final Presidential Debate Likely Isn’t Persuading Voters

The last presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden took place in Nashville, Tennessee, on the night of October 22, just 12 days away from Election Day. With the U.S. Elections Project already reporting a vote count of 50 million (more than that of the total early vote count in the entire 2016 election cycle), unfortunately, it seems as though the President was not able to use this debate to flip his campaign around from the 10-point polling deficit he is seeing.

How the Electoral Map Looks Based On Polling Data (Oct.)

We are now just 12 days away from Election Day, and with 40 million people casting their ballots already based on the U.S. Elections Project, Joe Biden continues to maintain a double-digit lead in the national polling averages on FiveThirtyEight. Today, we’re going to take a look at how the Electoral College map may look like based purely off of polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and making use of RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages as well.

How Did Kansas’s US Senate Race Get So Competitive?

Among the numerous surprising U.S. Senate races that have gotten very competitive this year, like South Carolina and Montana, Kansas is one such race. The Sunflower State is one of the most socially conservative and Republican-leaning states in the country. In this open Senate race, Democratic candidate Barbara Bollier has managed to run up the numbers against Republican candidate Roger Marshall. In this post, we are going to take a look at how this race got so competitive.

2020 Shatters Early Voting Records

As this post is being written, this year’s election cycle seems to be on a trajectory to be one of the highest turnout elections in American history. Based on the U.S. Elections Project’s early voting statistics, maintained by a professor from the University of Florida, as of writing, over 28.4 million people (compiled from 44 reporting states) have voted in November’s elections. With Florida starting in-person early voting today, there is no doubt that people are turning out in the masses to cast their ballots.

How Pennsylvania Could Decide the Election

Pennsylvania has been a key swing state for much of modern history. Though the Keystone State has trended bluer in recent elections, leading to the formation of the so-called “blue wall” consisting of the Rust Belt states of Penn., Mich., and Wis., as well as other Northeastern states. However, Donald Trump managed to break through this blue wall, winning the state by a mere 44,000 votes (a 0.7 percent margin) in 2016. This has pushed the state back again into the swing state column, and both campaigns are heavily targeting the state this year.

Democrats Have a 73% Chance of Winning the Senate (Mid-Oct.)

As Election Day draws closer and closer, the Democrats and Republicans are battling over who will win the U.S. Senate majority. With 16 million people having voting already, it is just a matter of time until we know which party wins back the Senate. Since my last Senate prediction, not much has changed on the Senate level compared to the presidential level, but there have still been a number of changes.

How South Carolina’s US Senate Race Got So Competitive

South Carolina is traditionally a ruby-red, solid Republican state. However, the incumbent Republican U.S. senator, Lindsey Graham, is facing the fight of his life. Polls have shown the race at a virtual statistical tie. How did the Senate race in the Palmetto State get so tight, when he won reelection in 2014 by a safe margin? And will Graham actually lose?

Presidential Race Moves In Biden’s Favor 20 Days Out (Mid-Oct.)

We are now officially 20 days from the election, and, since the last prediction, it was revealed that Trump paid just $750 in taxes, we have had the most chaotic presidential debate in history, and the President tested positive for COVID-19, all while Senate Republicans try to push through the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court and refusing to pass any coronavirus aid relief bills before Election Day.

Will Texas Flip Blue This November? (October Update)

I last covered the topic of Texas flipping blue back in August. Since then, a great deal has changed in the national landscape. So, today, we will be looking at whether the Lone Star State will flip blue in either the Presidential or Senate levels. Texas is a key state to watch as it is the second-largest Electoral College prize at 38 electoral votes, behind only California with 55.

A Discussion On the US House Elections (October)

FiveThirtyEight has released its U.S. House prediction model on October 7. With this influx of new data, I believe it is time once again to take a look at the U.S. House elections as they stand in early October. Though not much has changed regarding the House elections since my last prediction in September (Democrats are still clearly favored to win), there are some close races to talk about.

This May Be the Most Important VP Debate Ever

On Wednesday night, Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic nominee for Vice President, Senator Kamala Harris, engaged in the first and only Vice Presidential debate held at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. The debate was very civil especially compared to the hot mess that was the first presidential debate. In an already very tediously drawn-out election cycle amid a global pandemic that has already taken the toll of 210,000 American lives, this year’s vice presidential debate might just be the most important one that has ever been held.

Two Tossup Senate Races and a Tight Presidential Race in Georgia

Georgia may have long been a solid Republican state, but like many others, is a hotly contested swing state this year. The Peach State has two high-stakes U.S. Senate elections and a very tight presidential race, with all candidates virtually neck-and-neck. In fact, based on FiveThirtyEight’s U.S. Senate forecast, it is the closest GOP-leaning state in terms of margins.

Democrats Maintain a Modest But Consistent Lead in NC

North Carolina is one of the most hotly contested swing states this election season, with a very competitive presidential race, a moderately competitive Senate race, and a less-competitive governor race, all of which are projected to go to the Democrats. The Tar Heel State is a former Confederate state and leans slightly Republican in recent years, but owing to demographic shifts, may possibly be moving back in the Democrats’ favor once again. The state is quite a large electoral prize, possessing 15 electoral votes.

The Longest-Lasting Bellwether State of Ohio: Will It Last?

The Buckeye State has been the longest political bellwether on the presidential level, having voted with the eventual president every year perfectly since 1964. (In fact, it has only not done so four times since 1860: in 1884, 1892, 1944, and 1960.) In fact, no Republican has ever won an election without having carried Ohio. As a result of this and a similar split in party registration, Ohio is a key battleground state in the Rust Belt, heavily targeted by presidential campaigns.

President Trump Catches COVID-19: Effect On the 2020 Election

Early October 2, President Trump announced on Twitter that he and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19, coming just hours that senior advisor Hope Hicks tested positive. This throws a major uncertainty into the 2020 presidential campaign race, throwing a major wrench into the president’s reelection campaign. The positive test comes after months of downplaying and minimizing the threat and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic by the current administration.

Iowa: Presidential, Senate, and House Tossup

Though Iowa, the Hawkeye State, is seen as getting progressively more Republican due to the state voting for Donald Trump by a 10-point margin in 2016, it is still a hotly contested swing state and definitely on both parties’ radar. There are close presidential, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House races in the state, and we also must not forget the fact that Iowa has a long history of big swings between presidential candidates.

The Worst Presidential Debate Ever

On Tuesday night, Joe Biden and Donald Trump debated each other for the first time this election cycle in what could have been called the worst debate ever in the history of presidential debates. It was more like two people constantly shouting at each other rather than a “debate.” In fact, 83 percent of debate watchers in a CBS News/YouGov poll said the overall debate was “negative.” Last night’s debate took place in Cleveland, Ohio, and the moderator was Chris Wallace from Fox News, who is well known for his tough and ambitious interviews.